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Ballot: Eric Lynn, Anna Paulina Luna locked in tie for CD 13 – Florida Politics

Candidates for Florida’s thirteenth Congressional District are locked in a useless warmth, in line with the latest survey results from St. Pete Polls. 

The 2 are separated by lower than 1 proportion level, with Republican Anna Paulina Luna posting 45.9% help to Democrat Eric Lynn’s 45.3% help. Practically 9% of these polled are nonetheless undecided.

The candidates are working to interchange Democrat Charlie Crist, who left workplace amid a bid for Governor.

Strategically, there may be excellent news for Lynn within the ballot. Extra of his supporters have already voted than Luna’s, which implies her marketing campaign might want to guarantee those that haven’t already solid a poll accomplish that by Election Day. In the meantime, Lynn can focus his efforts on luring undecided voters. Greater than 12% of these polled who’re nonetheless undecided have but to vote.

Of these surveyed, greater than 56% of Lynn’s supporters mentioned they’d already voted whereas solely 39% of Luna’s supporters had already solid a poll. 

Lynn is drawing extra cross-party help than his opponent. Solely 7% of Democrats indicated they deliberate to vote for Luna, whereas 16% of Republicans mentioned they might vote for Lynn.

Nonetheless, Lynn has floor to make up amongst unbiased voters. Of these, greater than half are backing Luna whereas solely 40% are supporting Lynn.

In comparison with different Democrats, Lynn is performing properly amongst White voters. Luna leads the demographic, however by lower than 3 proportion factors. Lynn has a big benefit amongst Black voters, at 56% help to Luna’s 12%. And there are many voters but to seize, with 32% of Black voters indicating they’re nonetheless undecided. 

Lynn’s efficiency is basically buoyed by youthful voters, with greater than 45% of these aged 18-29 backing the Democrat, in comparison with 40% for Luna. In the meantime, she has slight leads amongst voters 30-49 and 50-69. The 2 are statistically tied amongst voters 70 and older. 

Luna ran within the district two years in the past, shedding to Crist. Redistricting has since shifted district boundaries to favor Republicans. Underneath earlier district boundaries, Democrats had a couple of 16,000-voter benefit. Underneath new boundaries, which shifted north to incorporate areas with a heavy GOP benefit, Republicans now have about 33,000 extra voters than Democrats, in line with the most recent L2 voter data.

Lynn’s marketing campaign has tried to beat the deficit, working as a average Democrat and enjoying up Luna as an excessive Republican aligned with former President Donald Trump, his “huge lie” that Joe Biden didn’t win the 2020 Presidential Election, and far-right insurance policies. The technique is to herald average Republican voters and independents, whereas nonetheless successful over Democrats.

Lynn presently has a full-forced digital advert enjoying on social media doing simply that, utilizing clips from the Tampa Bay Times recommendation for him over Luna. That advice factors to Luna’s self-described place as a “pro-life extremist,” her help for Texas’ abortion regulation that bans most abortions at about six weeks of being pregnant and her doubts concerning the 2020 election.

The Instances worries her feedback and political positions could lead on her to “be a part of the ranks of Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert and others in Congress who constantly embrace conspiracy theories, unfold lies and undermine the democratic course of.”

The St. Pete Polls survey was taken Oct. 26-27 amongst 509 seemingly CD 13 Basic Election voters. It has a margin of error of 4.3 proportion factors.

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