Miami vs. Texas A&M Odds & Picks: Tips on how to Guess the Unfold & Over/Beneath for Saturday's Showdown (September 17) – The Motion Community
Miami vs. Texas A&M Odds
By Dan Keegan
Our premier sport of Week 3 options two traditionally profitable faculties attempting to climb their method again into the game’s higher echelon. For each Texas A&M and Miami, this sport is a measuring stick of how far they’ve climbed of their quest to the mountaintop, or presumably an indication of how far they nonetheless need to go.
Miami is in Yr 1 of the Mario Cristobal period, and the Canes want to shore up a protection that ranked 51st in SP+ final season. They dealt with Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss at residence of their first two video games and now head to Faculty Station for the measuring stick.
Oddsmakers are assured within the Canes’ bounceback within the ACC, making them second within the convention to win the league at +450. A powerful exhibiting on this contest may decrease that quantity considerably.
Whereas the Hurricanes are simply leaving base camp on their trek to the summit, the Aggies are in a nerve-racking place. This marks the fifth 12 months of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure in Faculty Station, and his group simply misplaced at residence to Appalachian State.
Fisher has been looking for a quarterback, and an issue is burgeoning between starter Haynes King and backup Max Johnson. Fisher has been referred to as a “quarterback whisperer,” but it surely’s onerous to disregard the rising echoes that the sport has advanced past him.
The protection is superb, and it’s the place the outcomes of Fisher’s apex recruiting work shines most clearly. The entrance seven is imply, nasty and chiseled, whereas the defensive backs circulate to the ball like an avalanche. That facet of the ball ranks second in SP+ on the younger season after ending seventh final 12 months.
This must be an enchanting sport in entrance of the rowdy — and anxious — Kyle Discipline partisans. We must always achieve some insights into among the groups on the following touchdown down from the true title contenders.
We polled 17 of our faculty soccer consultants on workers to type by and discover a consensus on the right way to wager this massive sport. Let’s get into their evaluation.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Level Unfold
By Cody Goggin
Final week towards a a lot much less gifted opponent, Texas A&M’s offense was dreadful. The Aggies posted an Offensive Success Fee in simply the twenty eighth percentile in a sport it in all probability ought to’ve received handily.
Haynes King regarded utterly outmatched as he averaged -0.63 EPA per play towards Appalachian State. Now, LSU switch Max Johnson is about to begin towards the Hurricanes.
Texas A&M’s protection is its greatest power. It enters because the No. 2 protection within the nation, per SP+, and held an App State group that scored 60 factors towards North Carolina the week earlier than to only a 14th percentile Success Fee.
Miami has began the season towards two simpler opponents in Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss, but it surely’s proven up and brought care of enterprise. In these two weeks, the Hurricanes have posted Offensive Success Fee ranks within the 99th and 92nd percentiles, leaving them with one of the best Offensive Success Fee within the nation.
Tyler Van Dyke is one of the best quarterback on this sport and has generated some buzz as a possible excessive choose within the NFL Draft.
Miami’s protection has additionally been profitable in these two video games, rating eleventh within the nation in Defensive Success Fee. It isn’t projected to maintain this up all through the course of the season, nevertheless, as SP+ ranks it because the Thirty ninth-best protection within the nation.
Ultimately, I consider each groups must throw the ball to win this one. I might not belief King to win this, and his job may probably be in hassle if issues go poorly.
Regardless of A&M having an excellent protection, Van Dyke will get certainly one of his hardest assessments of the season, and I believe he’ll achieve preserving this sport shut and presumably even main his Hurricanes to a win.
By CJ Vogel
The blueprint to beat Texas A&M is there, and it’s to let the Aggies proceed doing no matter it’s they’ve been doing the primary two weeks in Faculty Station.
Haynes King and the Aggie offense has been fairly anemic to this point. Scoring simply 14 factors in its final sport towards Appalachian State, Texas A&M will now need to face its hardest defensive opponent off its most embarrassing loss in a decade.
The Aggies’ customary down EPA ranks one hundred and twentieth within the nation offensively.
Texas A&M may have the fortune of enjoying at residence, as Kyle Discipline will undoubtedly be a bonus. Although, when crowd noise turns into most advantageous is on third down, and Miami has been excellent on these performs this season.
That’s going to be an incredible concern for an Aggie protection that couldn’t get off the sphere towards App State, because the Mountaineers went 9-of-20 on third down and 3-of-5 on fourth down whereas holding possession for 41:29.
That is going to be a one-score sport, and I’m unsure the group that can win is the one which’s favored. Take Miami, and luxuriate in your night time.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Over/Beneath
Observe: When the faculty soccer workers was surveyed, the over/below sat at 48.5 factors. The road has steadily decreased to 44.5 all through the week. As of Thursday night, we have now pocketed a closing line worth of 8.6%.
Final weekend was an unmitigated catastrophe for Jimbo Fisher and his Texas A&M Aggies. The then-No. 6 Aggies misplaced a decent sport, which was largely a defensive wrestle after Appalachian State scored the one three factors of the fourth quarter to win, 17-14.
Though the Aggies entered the season with the top-ranked recruiting class within the nation, per 247Sports, maybe there simply isn’t sufficient offensive firepower. Within the final 4 recruiting cycles, Texas A&M has signed eight defensive five-stars to 5 offensive five-star signees.
The whole group is loaded with promise, however within the final two video games, it’s been the protection that has been doing the heavy lifting.
In Week 1, the Aggies snubbed a venerable Sam Houston from the FCS ranks, 31-0. Then they went on to carry an Appalachian State group that seems to have a prolific offense to solely 17 factors after the Mountaineers put up 61 the week earlier than towards North Carolina in a shedding effort.
As a lot as final week’s loss stings for the Aggies, it’s an indictment on the offense that couldn’t scrape collectively 18 factors towards a group that gave up 63 the week prior.
The present state of affairs additionally speaks volumes to the efficiency of the Aggie protection after two robust performances. Texas A&M enters the competition with Miami tied for eleventh within the nation in scoring protection, giving up simply 8.5 factors per sport to date.
Miami hasn’t been examined to the extent that Texas A&M has, and you can actually make the case that neither group has really been examined at this juncture.
However Miami comes into the sport with a protection that has proven promise too. The Canes at present rank sixteenth within the nation in scoring protection after giving up 13 factors and 7 factors towards Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss in Weeks 1 and a couple of.
Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke may have his hardest take a look at of the season at Kyle Discipline. After what may very well be described as a shaky begin at greatest final week, Van Dyke faces a Texas A&M secondary that’s stacked with expertise and ranks seventh in Defensive Passing Success Fee.
Search for the Aggie protection to relish of their function because the group’s power. Particularly, the A&M secondary will drive the ball to the bottom, the place Miami has been essentially the most snug on this younger season.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Moneyline, Props & Unique Picks
It is a sport I’ve had circled on my calendar from the very begin.
I used to be excessive on Miami getting into the season, and this can be a must-win sport if it needs to be taken significantly as a playoff contender.
After bringing in offensive coordinator Josh Gattis to revitalize the offense — a rent that made me fall in love with the Canes — Miami has steamrolled its lesser competitors to date this season.
Whereas Texas A&M shall be its hardest take a look at but as the most effective defenses within the nation, Miami is greater than able to transferring the ball with the most effective customary down Success Charges in faculty soccer. That weak spot of A&M’s protection was on full show towards App State.
Whereas the defensive metrics are skewed due to the standard of competitors, this can make or break Miami’s long-term success this season. Fortunately for us, the Aggies offense has been brutal.
Even surrounded by immense expertise, Texas A&M’s Haynes King has struggled to maintain drives when the offense lulls. If Miami’s offense continues to roll, this might get ugly quick for the Aggies.
Whereas I’m on the unfold and already posted it within the Motion App, I’ll additionally take Miami on the moneyline in what shall be a press release sport for the Hurricanes.
You realize what wouldn’t be a enjoyable place to play, coach or be a fan final week? Faculty Station, Texas.
After inking the highest recruiting class of 2022, there have been loads of pundits throwing across the Texas A&M identify within the nationwide title dialog. However after a loss to Appalachian State final week, the Aggies can overlook the dream of hoisting the natty in California come early January.
Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher clearly has to make some modifications. Precedence No. 1 needs to be getting extra factors on the board. Aggie quarterback Haynes King threw for under 97 yards final week on a 13-for-20 effort.
Fisher was in an identical scenario final season with quarterback Zach Calzada. After Calzada stumbled in SEC play early on, Fisher opened up the playbook and Calzada led the Aggies to an upset over No. 1 ranked Alabama.
Fisher once more finds himself in an identical predicament this season. King began sizzling towards Sam Houston after which cooled off final week.
There’s no alternative however for Texas A&M to return out in assault mode. Search for Fisher to take the coaching wheels off early and let King sling it round. King is the man in the intervening time, and getting his confidence up heading into SEC play subsequent week shall be key.
I really like the bounce-back spot for a refocused Texas A&M group at residence after getting embarrassed on the nationwide stage.
I see some worth on the unfold at a landing and no further level, however my favourite wager is laying a hook on the first-quarter unfold.
Search for the Aggie protection to proceed to toe the road and the King-led offense to return out sizzling.
After what we noticed final week, it’s onerous to trust in any a part of this Texas A&M group. In spite of everything, it scored simply 14 factors in a loss to Appalachian State at residence. However who was answerable for each level the Aggies scored final week? Devon Achane.
Achane led the SEC with seven yards per carry final season, and he is perhaps a candidate for the Heisman if his group wasn’t so dangerous.
He’s a veteran on this Texas A&M group and serves as somebody somebody your entire group can depend on to carry out when it wants him most. With Isaiah Spiller gone, Achane’s reps and utilization indisputably will improve transferring ahead, particularly if the passing sport can’t discover success.
No matter whether or not King continues to wrestle by the air or not, I believe Achane shall be a significant component on this sport. Miami’s protection is strong, however one of many few weak spots it has displayed — even towards inferior competitors to date — is stopping explosive runs. Miami ranks 113th in defensive speeding play explosiveness.
I locked in Achane’s speeding yards at over 65.5 on PrizePicks. However as soon as participant props are out, I’ll be seeking to take him individually as properly at 75.5 yards or higher.